Possible impacts of Brexit on EU development and humanitarian policies

Brexit could have a major impact on EU development and humanitarian policies. However, although Brexit is highly likely to happen, there are still uncertainties about the UK’s new foreign policy approach and its repercussions on aid. The UK may act under three different scenarios (nationalist, realist, cosmopolitan) with different consequences for EU aid. The UK’s leaving would challenge the EU’s role as the world’s leading donor: while global aid may decrease by up to 3 %, the EU could lose between 10 % and 13 % of its world aid share. Its presence, through ODA, in neighbouring countries throughout Eastern Europe and North Africa could be particularly affected, with a cut of between 1 % and 4 %, depending on different scenarios. The EU could react to Brexit by adopting two distinct approaches to foreign policy and development cooperation: either limiting its role to that of a regional power or growing to become a global leader. In the first approach, Brexit would have a very mild effect and would lead to very few policy challenges. However, in the second, the EU would need to compensate for the loss of Britain’s contribution to EU aid, both in quantitative and qualitative terms. Policy Department, Directorate-General for External Policies This paper was requested by the European Parliament's Committee on Development (DEVE). English-language manuscript was completed on 05 April 2017. Printed in Belgium. Authors: Iliana OLIVIÉ, senior analyst, Elcano Royal Institute, Spain and Aitor PÉREZ, senior research fellow, Elcano Royal Institute, Spain Official Responsible: Valerie RAMET Editorial Assistant: Simona IACOBLEV Feedback of all kind is welcome. Please write to: [email protected]. To obtain copies, please send a request to: [email protected] This paper will be published on the European Parliament's online database, 'Think tank'. The content of this document is the sole responsibility of the author and any opinions expressed therein do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. It is addressed to the Members and staff of the EP for their parliamentary work. Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorised, provided the source is acknowledged and the European Parliament is given prior notice and sent a copy. ISBN: 978-92-846-0893-5 (pdf) ISBN: 978-92-846-0892-8 (paper) doi: 10.2861/778897 (pdf) doi: 10.2861/10248 (paper) Catalogue number: QA-01-17-324-EN-N (pdf) Catalogue number: QA-01-17-324-EN-C (paper) Possible impacts of Brexit on EU development and humanitarian policies 3 Table of contents List of abbreviations 5 Executive summary 6